A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
